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发表于 2022-8-3 13:39:31
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兼听则明，几年前一位剑桥博士对中国四个最贫困地区经济发展情况的讨论，下面节录的是其中的广西部分，我们来听听他对平陆运河的观点。
全文可参见：https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id ... r=spider&for=pc
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广西
自然条件先天性不足
Janus Dongye称，广西和越南北部在地理位置和地形方面非常相似。两个地方都有大量的河漫滩平原、丘陵山脉和沿海地区。
Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region and Northern Vietnam are actually very similar in terms of geographic positions and terrains. They both have plenty of flooded plains, hilly mountains and coastal areas.
从理论上来讲，两地的人均GDP应该很相似。但实际上，与广西相比，越南遭受了多次战争，现在广西的人均GDP是6270美元，而越南是2557美元。In theory, their GDP per capita should be similar but Vietnam suffers many wars compared to Guangxi. Now Guangxi GDP per capita is $6270 and Vietnam is $2557.
其实，广西存在着地理环境上的“先天性”劣势。
“大河向东流”流失了机会和人才
Janus Dongye认为，广西的主要问题在于区内所有河流都向东流，而不是向南流入海洋。
……the main problem for Guangxi is that all of its tributary rivers flow east instead of heading south to the sea.
即使今天在中国，由于水运成本低廉，仍然有很多重型货物通过河流运输。这对广西来说是一个问题，由于区内所有河流向东流，因此所有来自广西的水运货物都要先经过广州和香港。Even for today in China, there are still a lot of heavyweight goods are shipped by river in China due to the comparatively low cost of transport. The problem for Guangxi is that, since all its rivers flow directly to the east, all river-based shipment from Guangxi has to go through Guangzhou and Hong Kong.对于广西首府南宁而言，最大的尴尬之处在于，即便南宁距离南部海岸只有100公里，货轮却需要向东航行1000公里才能抵达海洋。想像一下广西人民为国际航运需要承担的额外成本。……the biggest embarrassment for the capital Nanning is that ships have to travel 1000km to the east to reach the sea, even though Nanning is only 100km away from the coast to the south. Just imagine the extra cost added for the Guangxi people when it comes to international shipment!同样的地形问题也出现在巴西，巨大的山脉阻挡了海岸。这就是巴西经济落后，无法发展制造业的原因。A similar issue can be found in Brazil where a huge mountain range can be seen blocks the coast.……That's why the Brazilian economy is not so good and could not develop manufacturing.
△巴西的地形图
广西（比巴西）稍微好一些，但是广西的航运成本比中国其他沿海省份更高。由于高昂的成本，投资和人才都不会来到这里，而且临近广东，广西还因此存在严重的人才流失问题。这是广西贫穷的终极原因。Guangxi is slightly better but shipping costs in Guangxi are more expensive compared to other coastal provinces in China. Due to the high costs, investments and talents would not come and it suffers the severe brain drain from the nearby Canton. This is the ultimate reason why Guangxi is poor.因此，广西需要的是尽力改善基础设施，吸引来自重庆和昆明的货物运输。They need to try their best to improve infrastructure and attract shipments from Chongqing and Kunming.
**需要调整发展方向，因地制宜，弥补广西先天性不足的自然条件。
**做了什么
Janus Dongye认为，广西自治区**意识到了广西自然条件的缺陷和发展中存在的不足，及时调整发展策略。
幸运的是，广西自治区**已经意识到了这个问题，在集中精力发展与云南和贵州的联系，而且他们提议修建运河。Luckily the current CCP leader in Guangxi has realized the problem and is now focusing on promoting connections between Yunnan and Guizhou. And they have also proposed to build Canals!
广西的“十三五”规划中提到，要评估修建连接平塘河与南部钦江的平陆运河的可能性。For the 13th Five Year Plan in Guangxi, the CCP is planning to "evaluate" the possibility of the Ping-Lu Canal (平陆运河) that connects the Pingtang river to the Qinjiang river in the south.这条运河长20公里，建造成本非常高。它的长度是泰国克拉地峡运河的一半。The canal is 20km long and it is very expensive to build. For reference, it is half the length of the Kra Canal in Thailand.如果建成，这条运河将显著地推动广西经济的发展。通过连接水路，货船可以在广西大部分河网上运输超重型机器和货物，这将最终解决广西的问题！If it were built, it would be a truly significant boost for the Guangxi economy. With connected water, ships can then carry extra-heavy machinery and goods across most of the river network in Guangxi. It would finally solve the Guangxi problem!对于公路和铁路网的密度和可达性方面，广西还有很大的提升空间。我不再具体列出，因为这个方面与云南和贵州相似。Regarding its road and railway network, Guangxi still has a lot of rooms to improve in terms of density and accessibility. I will not list their detailed projects because they are similar to Yunnan and Guizhou.
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